These 4 races could decide big things in the Maine Legislature

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AUGUSTA, Maine — Maine is known for having some of the closest legislative races in the country, but Democrats have been in full control of the State House since 2018.
That could change on Tuesday. Many Republicans are optimistic that they can win or cut into the narrow 79-67 Democratic majority in the House of Representatives. Democrats control the Senate by a wide 22-13 margin, making it difficult for Republicans to take control there.
A Republican majority in the House would hamper Gov. Janet Mills in the last two years of her tenure. She would have to negotiate with Republicans on every major issue if the lower chamber flips. It would also endanger the jobs of Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and Attorney General Aaron Frey, who are elected by a vote of all lawmakers.
The top four seats to watch stretch from the Portland suburbs to the St. John Valley, including a Maine Senate district north of Bangor that is drawing massive spending and a Republican seat that has been thrown into chaos because of criminal charges against the incumbent.
While the Senate isn’t really in play, this race is one of Republicans’ best chances to knock off an incumbent. Democrats are treating it as such, dumping in two-thirds of the $488,000 in total outside spending from partisan groups that has made this the most expensive legislative election of the year.
This is a sprawling and diverse district stretching from the liberal college town of Orono to some of the most conservative parts of Maine around the Lincoln area. Republicans have long struggled to recruit good candidates here, but they made an inspired selection in Kenney, an town councilor in Orono who is a good bet to overperform his party affiliation there.
Tipping, a veteran of Maine politics who has long worked for the progressive Maine People’s Alliance, showed skill as a candidate by winning his seat in 2022 while beating a primary opponent supported by top Senate Democrats. But there is some risk in this strange district.
This race is cutting against the leftward trend of the Portland suburbs. Graham won this seat narrowly in 2010, barely held it against Austin two years later and then lost to another Republican in 2014. When Graham returned in 2022, she won it by 16 points.
Austin is back and is well-positioned to give Graham a run after her five total legislative terms stretching back to 2008. Their race has attracted more than $100,000 in outside spending, with two-thirds of that coming from the Republicans trying to make inroads in the suburbs.
President Joe Biden won this district by 15 points in 2020, which is one reason that the legislative forecasting site CNalysis says Graham is likely to win. But Republicans are heavily invested here and need to win places like this to gain a foothold in state politics.
Martin is trying to come back to a State House he was first elected to 60 years ago. That is a trend this year in Aroostook County. The 83-year-old is among three Democrats older than 75 trying to recapture seats that are held by Republicans and trending toward staying that way.
The powerful former House speaker faces Daigle, a dentist from Fort Kent. The seat is a unique one as an ancestral Democratic stronghold. State Rep. Austin Theriault, R-Fort Kent, won it by 38 points after Martin stepped down due to term limits. Theriault is now running for Congress.
It’s hard to bet against Martin, long known as the “Earl of Eagle Lake” for the way he wielded power in the State House. But he was beaten once in 2012. A Republican sweep of these northern Maine seats could be a majority maker.
Lanigan won this seat by 12 points in 2022. It is only in play now because he was arrested just over a week before Election Day for allegedly strangling his romantic partner when she confronted him over an affair. His partner has said the charges should be dropped.
Democrats quickly called on Lanigan to resign. But House Minority Leader Billy Bob Faulkingham, R-Winter Harbor, declined to put any public pressure on him, saying the case will be resolved in the courts. Early voting was well under way before Lanigan was charged.
That means there is at least an outside chance that Lanigan wins on Tuesday. Republicans will either lose a safe seat or be in the position of deciding whether or not to seat a member accused of a violent crime.